Our Liverpool vs Leeds Prediction: 3-1
Liverpool vs Leeds in the England Premier League is scheduled for an 17:30 GMT kick-off on Thursday January 1, 2026. We’re backing a 3-1 home win, but for those looking at alternative bets, over 2.5 goals is worth considering based on both teams' attacking stats.
This Liverpool vs Leeds prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Liverpool's Last Match – Liverpool vs Nottm Forest
Liverpool will hope to recover from their recent 0-3 England Premier League setback against Nottm Forest on November 22. In that match, Liverpool had 75% possession and 9 attempts at goal, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 75% | 9 (4) | 2.01 | 95 |
 Nottm Forest | 25% | 8 (7) | 1.32 | 42 |
Leeds's Last Match – Leeds vs Aston Villa
After suffering a 1-2 England Premier League loss to Aston Villa, Leeds must win to get back on track. In that match, Leeds controlled 47% of possession and managed 7 shots on goal, with 5 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leeds | 47% | 7 (5) | 1.54 | 51 |
 Aston Villa | 53% | 10 (3) | 1.2 | 38 |
Liverpool vs Leeds Stats
Key Stats
| Liverpool | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | Attacking Strength | 0.63 |
| 1.03 | Defence Strength | 1.68 |
| 0.9 | Points Per Game | 0.8 |
| 3/10 | WIN | 2/10 |
| 0/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 7/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 7/10 |
| 1.2 | Average Scored | 1 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Liverpool are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match, while Leeds average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded per game.