Our Mainz vs St Pauli Prediction: 1-1
Mainz vs St Pauli in the Germany Bundesliga I is scheduled for an 14:30 GMT kick-off on Sunday December 21, 2025. We anticipate a balanced game ending in a 1-1 draw, and given both teams’ scoring form, BTTS looks like a safe bet.
This Mainz vs St Pauli prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Mainz's Last Match – Mainz vs Samsunspor
Mainz will seek to keep their streak alive after a 2-0 UEFA Conference League victory over Samsunspor on December 18. In that match, Mainz controlled 46% of possession and managed 8 shots on goal, with 4 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mainz | 46% | 8 (4) | 1.7 | 55 |
 Samsunspor | 54% | 4 (2) | 0.72 | 23 |
St Pauli's Last Match – St Pauli vs Heidenheim
St Pauli will aim to maintain their momentum following a 2-1 Germany Bundesliga I triumph against Heidenheim on December 13. In that match, St Pauli recorded 37% possession, firing 5 shots at goal, with 5 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 St Pauli | 37% | 5 (5) | 0.8 | 32 |
 Heidenheim | 63% | 12 (7) | 2.13 | 74 |
Mainz vs St Pauli Stats
Key Stats
| Mainz | St Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | Attacking Strength | 0.62 |
| 1.1 | Defence Strength | 0.86 |
| 1 | Points Per Game | 0.8 |
| 2/10 | WIN | 2/10 |
| 4/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 1/10 | Clean Sheets | 0/10 |
| 5/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 3/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 7/10 |
| 0.9 | Average Scored | 0.9 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Mainz are averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, while St Pauli average 0.9 scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
Mainz 9-13
St Pauli 9-20
What are the odds for this match?
Mainz to win: @1.95
Draw: @3.3
St Pauli to win: @4.1
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.9
Lineups
Mainz (3-3-3-1) : Daniel Batz, Dominik Kohr, Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Kacper Potulski, Danny da Costa, Kaishu Sano, Silvan Widmer, Paul Nebel, Nadiem Amiri, Lee Jae-sung, Benedict Hollerbach
St Pauli (3-3-2-2) : Nikola Vasilj, Hauke Wahl, Adam Dzwigala, Karol Mets, Arkadiusz Pyrka, James Sands, Louis Oppie, Joel Chima Fujita, Jackson Irvine, Andreas Hountondji, Mathias Pereira Lage