Our Sao Paulo vs Gremio Prediction: 2-1
Sao Paulo vs Gremio in the Brazil Serie A is scheduled for an 00:30 GMT kick-off on Thursday February 12, 2026. A 2-1 win for the home side is our expected outcome, though BTTS looks promising given both teams’ recent scoring records.
This Sao Paulo vs Gremio prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Sao Paulo's Last Match – Sao Paulo vs Primavera SP
Sao Paulo will want to continue their winning form after a 2-1 Brazil Campeonato Paulista victory over Primavera SP, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Sao Paulo controlled 67% of possession and managed 13 shots on goal, with 5 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sao Paulo | 67% | 13 (5) | 1.84 | 63 |
 Primavera SP | 33% | 7 (5) | 0.68 | 18 |
Gremio's Last Match – Gremio vs Novo Hamburgo
Gremio will hope to extend their good run following a 1-0 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho win against Novo Hamburgo on February 7. In that match, Gremio had 61% possession and 3 shots on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gremio | 61% | 0 (3) | 1.5 | 41 |
 Novo Hamburgo | 39% | 0 (3) | 0.21 | 26 |
Sao Paulo vs Gremio Stats
Key Stats
| Sao Paulo | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.05 | Attacking Strength | 1.52 |
| 0.76 | Defence Strength | 1.12 |
| 1.1 | Points Per Game | 1.6 |
| 3/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 1/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 4/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 4/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 7/10 |
| 1 | Average Scored | 2.3 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Gremio average 2.5 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
Sao Paulo 12-14
Gremio 25-11
Lineups
Sao Paulo (4-2-3-1) : Rafael, Lucas Ramon, Alan Franco, Sabino, Enzo Diaz, Daniel Abelha, Damian Bobadilla, Lucas Moura, Luciano, Marcos Antonio, Jonathan Calleri
Gremio (4-3-3) : Weverton, Joao Pedro, Fabian Balbuena, Wagner Leonardo, Marlon, Erick Carlos Noriega Loret de Mola, Arthur Melo, Edenilson, Tete, Carlos Vinicius, Francis Amuzu