Our Derby vs Stoke Prediction: 1-0
Derby vs Stoke in the England Championship is scheduled for an 14:00 GMT kick-off on Monday April 6, 2026. We anticipate a close game, with Derby securing a 1-0 win thanks to a crucial moment of quality against Stoke.
This Derby vs Stoke prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Derby's Last Match – Coventry vs Derby
Derby must win as they aim to bounce back from a disappointing 2-3 England Championship defeat against Coventry on April 3. In that match, Derby recorded 50% possession, firing 4 shots at goal, with 3 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Coventry | 50% | 9 (7) | 1.57 | 45 |
 Derby | 50% | 4 (3) | 2.17 | 40 |
Stoke's Last Match – Stoke vs Sheff Wed
Determined to maintain their recent success, Stoke must win following their 2-0 England Championship victory against Sheff Wed on April 3. In that match, Stoke saw 48% of the ball and created 11 goal attempts, with 5 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 48% | 11 (5) | 2.53 | 42 |
 Sheff Wed | 52% | 5 (1) | 1.32 | 47 |
Derby vs Stoke Stats
Key Stats
| Derby | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | Attacking Strength | 0.51 |
| 0.76 | Defence Strength | 0.76 |
| 1.5 | Points Per Game | 1.1 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 3/10 |
| 0/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 5/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 7/10 |
| 1.4 | Average Scored | 1.5 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Derby are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Stoke average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
Derby 14-14
Stoke 15-17
What are the odds for this match?
Derby to win: @1.9
Draw: @3.5
Stoke to win: @3.9
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.925
Lineups
Derby (4-2-3-1) : Richard O'Donnell, Joe Ward, Dion Sanderson, Matt Clarke, Derry Murkin, David Ozoh, Lewis Travis, Ben Brereton, Bobby Clark, Patrick Agyemang, Carlton Morris
Stoke (3-4-2-1) : Gavin Bazunu, Sydney Agina, Ashley Phillips, Bosun Lawal, Sorba Thomas, Steven Nzonzi, Tatsuki Seko, Eric Junior Bocat, Tomas Rigo, Jesuran Rak-Sakyi, Mohamed Lamine Cisse