Our Basel vs Lucerne Prediction: 4-1
Basel vs Lucerne in the Switzerland Super League is scheduled for an 14:30 GMT kick-off on Sunday September 28, 2025. We’re backing a 4-1 home victory, but with both teams creating plenty of chances, over 2.5 goals is another strong betting option.
This Basel vs Lucerne prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Basel's Last Match – SC Freiburg vs Basel
Basel will be eager to respond after suffering a 1-2 UEFA Europa League defeat at the hands of SC Freiburg on September 24. In that match, Basel recorded 51% possession, attempting 8 shots on goal, with 4 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 SC Freiburg | 49% | 7 (6) | 0.9 | 39 |
 Basel | 51% | 8 (4) | 1.02 | 42 |
Lucerne's Last Match – FC Bosna Neuchatel vs Lucerne
Lucerne will want to continue their winning form after a 6-0 Switzerland Cup victory over FC Bosna Neuchatel, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Lucerne controlled 66% of possession and managed 10 shots on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
FC Bosna Neuchatel | 34% | 0 (0) | - | 17 |
 Lucerne | 66% | 0 (10) | - | 50 |
Basel vs Lucerne Stats
Key Stats
| Basel | Lucerne | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.68 | Attacking Strength | 1.32 |
| 0.54 | Defence Strength | 1.26 |
| 1.7 | Points Per Game | 1.7 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 1/10 | Clean Sheets | 4/10 |
| 8/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 7/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 8/10 |
| 2.1 | Average Scored | 2.2 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Basel are averaging 2.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Lucerne average 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
Basel 21-14
Lucerne 22-12
What are the odds for this match?
Basel to win: @1.533
Draw: @4.5
Lucerne to win: @5.25
Lineups
Basel (4-4-2) : Marwin Hitz, Kevin Ruegg, Flavius Daniliuc, Adrian Leon Barisic, Dominik Robin Schmid, Jeremy Agbonifo, Leo Leroy, Metinho, Philipas Otele, Moritz Broschinski, Xherdan Shaqiri
Lucerne (4-4-2) : Pascal David Loretz, Pius Dorn, Stefan Knezevic, Adrian Bajrami, Bung Meng Freimann, Lucas Ferreira, Taisei Abe, Tyron Owusu, Matteo Di Giusto, Adrian Grbic, Lars Villiger