Our Birmingham vs Derby Prediction: 2-1
Birmingham vs Derby in the England Championship is scheduled for an 12:30 GMT kick-off on Friday December 26, 2025. A 2-1 result in favor of the hosts is our main pick, yet with both teams likely to get on the scoresheet, BTTS is another bet worth considering.
This Birmingham vs Derby prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Birmingham's Last Match – Sheff Utd vs Birmingham
Birmingham must win as they aim to bounce back from a disappointing 0-3 England Championship defeat against Sheff Utd on December 20. In that match, Birmingham recorded 34% possession, attempting 4 shots on goal, with 1 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sheff Utd | 66% | 13 (9) | 2.74 | 79 |
 Birmingham | 34% | 4 (1) | 0.64 | 21 |
Derby's Last Match – Derby vs Portsmouth
Determined to get back to winning ways, Derby must win after their 1-1 England Championship draw against Portsmouth on December 20. In that match, Derby had 52% possession and 8 attempts at goal, with 7 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derby | 52% | 8 (7) | 0.67 | 60 |
 Portsmouth | 48% | 3 (1) | 0.14 | 37 |
Birmingham vs Derby Stats
Key Stats
| Birmingham | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | Attacking Strength | 1.33 |
| 0.75 | Defence Strength | 0.83 |
| 1.4 | Points Per Game | 1.7 |
| 4/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 9/10 |
| 8/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 8/10 |
| 1.9 | Average Scored | 1.8 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Birmingham are averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Derby average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Birmingham 19-14
Derby 18-14
What are the odds for this match?
Birmingham to win: @1.9
Draw: @3.4
Derby to win: @4.2
Lineups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1) : James Beadle, Tomoki Iwata, Christoph Klarer, Eiran Cashin, Jack Robinson, Marc Leonard, Seung Ho Paik, Patrick Roberts, Jay Stansfield, Demarai Gray, Marvin Ducksch
Derby (3-4-1-2) : Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, Sondre Klingen Langas, Danny Batth, Matt Clarke, Joe Ward, Liam Thompson, Bobby Clark, Callum Elder, Rhian Brewster, Ben Brereton, Patrick Agyemang