Our Derby vs Birmingham Prediction: 2-1
Derby vs Birmingham in the England Championship is scheduled for an 12:30 GMT kick-off on Saturday March 21, 2026. A 2-1 victory for the hosts is our top prediction, yet given both teams’ attacking form, BTTS seems like a smart betting choice.
This Derby vs Birmingham prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Derby's Last Match – Portsmouth vs Derby
Derby must win to build on their momentum after securing a hard-fought 1-0 England Championship victory over Portsmouth in their last outing. In that match, Derby had 32% possession and 7 attempts at goal, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portsmouth | 68% | 14 (9) | 1.23 | 73 |
 Derby | 32% | 7 (4) | 0.99 | 23 |
Birmingham's Last Match – Birmingham vs Sheff Utd
Birmingham should win to turn things around after settling for a 1-1 England Championship draw against Sheff Utd on March 14. In that match, Birmingham saw 62% of the ball and created 10 goal attempts, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Birmingham | 62% | 10 (6) | 1.06 | 94 |
 Sheff Utd | 38% | 2 (2) | 1.74 | 30 |
Derby vs Birmingham Stats
Key Stats
| Derby | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | Attacking Strength | 0.76 |
| 1.02 | Defence Strength | 1.18 |
| 1.6 | Points Per Game | 1.5 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 1/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 5/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 4/10 |
| 1.7 | Average Scored | 1 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Derby are averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, while Birmingham average 1.0 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
Derby 17-12
Birmingham 10-11
What are the odds for this match?
Derby to win: @2.875
Draw: @3.3
Birmingham to win: @2.375
Over 2.5 Goals: @2