Our Burnley vs Derby Prediction: 1-1
Burnley vs Derby in the England EFL Cup is scheduled for an 18:45 GMT kick-off on Tuesday August 26, 2025. We predict a tightly contested 1-1 draw, with both teams getting on the scoresheet, making BTTS a strong betting option.
This Burnley vs Derby prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Burnley's Last Match – Burnley vs Sunderland
Burnley will look to carry forward their winning form after a 2-0 England Premier League success over Sunderland on August 23. In that match, Burnley controlled 42% of possession and managed 6 shots on goal, with 2 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Burnley | 42% | 6 (2) | 0.95 | 41 |
 Sunderland | 58% | 4 (1) | 0.61 | 59 |
Derby's Last Match – Derby vs Bristol City
Derby will look to build on their last result following a 1-1 England Championship stalemate against Bristol City on August 22. In that match, Derby saw 52% of the ball and created 3 goal attempts, with 2 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derby | 52% | 3 (2) | 0.46 | 36 |
 Bristol City | 48% | 5 (3) | 0.75 | 39 |
Burnley vs Derby Stats
Key Stats
| Burnley | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.98 | Attacking Strength | 0.52 |
| 1.22 | Defence Strength | 0.65 |
| 1.6 | Points Per Game | 1.5 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 1/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 5/10 | BTTS | 9/10 |
| 7/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.8 | Average Scored | 1.9 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Burnley are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, while Derby average 1.9 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
Burnley 18-12
Derby 19-18
What are the odds for this match?
Burnley to win: @1.5
Draw: @4.2
Derby to win: @6