Our Middlesbrough vs Derby Prediction: 2-1
Middlesbrough vs Derby in the England Championship is scheduled for an 15:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday March 1, 2025. We predict a 2-1 home victory, but with both teams showing attacking intent, BTTS (Both Teams to Score) is another strong betting option.
This Middlesbrough vs Derby prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Middlesbrough's Last Match – Stoke vs Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough will be eager to build on their previous performance after securing a 3-1 England Championship victory over Stoke on February 25. In that match, Middlesbrough recorded 53% possession, firing 13 shots at goal, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 47% | 8 (3) | 1.24 | 47 |
 Middlesbrough | 53% | 13 (6) | 2.19 | 23 |
Derby's Last Match – Derby vs Millwall
Derby will look to get back on track following a 0-1 England Championship loss against Millwall on February 22. In that match, Derby saw 51% of the ball and created 1 goal attempts, with 0 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derby | 51% | 1 (0) | 0.42 | 47 |
 Millwall | 49% | 5 (2) | 2.48 | 44 |
Middlesbrough vs Derby Stats
Key Stats
| Middlesbrough | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.19 | Attacking Strength | 0.77 |
| 1.06 | Defence Strength | 1.26 |
| 0.7 | Points Per Game | 0.3 |
| 2/10 | WIN | 0/10 |
| 1/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 1/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 3/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 2/10 |
| 1.2 | Average Scored | 0.3 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match, while Derby average 0.3 scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Middlesbrough 12-16
Derby 3-14
What are the odds for this match?
Middlesbrough to win: @1.65
Draw: @3.6
Derby to win: @5.5
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.9
Lineups
Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1) : Mark Travers, Anfernee Dijksteel, Luke Ayling, Dael Fry, Neto Borges, Aidan Morris, Hayden Hackney, Marcus Forss, Morgan Whittaker, Finn Azaz, Tommy Conway
Derby (4-2-3-1) : Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, Ryan Nyambe, Sondre Klingen Langas, Craig Forsyth, Callum Elder, Ebou Adams, Harrison Armstrong, Tom Barkhuizen, Marcus Harness, Kayden Jackson, Jerry Yates