Our Germany vs Italy Prediction: 3-2
Germany vs Italy in the UEFA Nations League is scheduled for an 19:45 GMT kick-off on Sunday March 23, 2025. A 3-2 win for the home side is our main prediction, though over 2.5 goals looks like a valuable bet given both teams’ attacking tendencies.
This Germany vs Italy prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Germany's Last Match – Italy vs Germany
Germany must win to build on their momentum after securing a hard-fought 2-1 UEFA Nations League victory over Italy in their last outing. In that match, Germany recorded 59% possession, attempting 7 shots on goal, with 4 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Italy | 41% | 9 (6) | 1.17 | 38 |
Germany | 59% | 7 (4) | 1.11 | 43 |
Italy's Last Match – Italy vs Germany
Italy must win to recover from their recent 1-2 UEFA Nations League defeat against Germany on March 20 and regain momentum. In that match, Italy saw 41% of the ball and created 9 goal attempts, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Italy | 41% | 9 (6) | 1.17 | 38 |
Germany | 59% | 7 (4) | 1.11 | 43 |
Germany vs Italy Stats
Key Stats
| Germany | Italy | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.02 | Attacking Strength | 1.17 |
| 1.46 | Defence Strength | 1 |
| 2.1 | Points Per Game | 1.4 |
| 6/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 4/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 6/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 2.4 | Average Scored | 1.5 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Germany are averaging 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, while Italy average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Germany 24-8
Italy 15-14
What are the odds for this match?
Germany to win: @1.727
Draw: @3.9
Italy to win: @4.333
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.9
Lineups
Germany (3-4-2-1) : Oliver Baumann, Jonathan Tah, Antonio Rudiger, Nico Schlotterbeck, Joshua Kimmich, Angelo Stiller, Leon Goretzka, Maximilian Mittelstadt, Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala, Tim Kleindienst
Italy (3-5-2) : Gianluigi Donnarumma, Federico Gatti, Alessandro Buongiorno, Alessandro Bastoni, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Nicolo Barella, Samuele Ricci, Sandro Tonali, Destiny Udogie, Moise Kean, Daniel Maldini