Our Mainz vs SC Freiburg Prediction: 2-1
Mainz vs SC Freiburg in the Germany Bundesliga I is scheduled for an 17:30 GMT kick-off on Sunday April 12, 2026. Our forecast points to a 2-1 home win, but considering both teams’ recent scoring patterns, BTTS is a highly likely outcome.
This Mainz vs SC Freiburg prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Mainz's Last Match – Mainz vs Strasbourg
Mainz will look to carry forward their winning form after a 2-0 UEFA Conference League success over Strasbourg on April 9. In that match, Mainz saw 34% of the ball and created 11 goal attempts, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mainz | 34% | 11 (6) | 1.52 | 48 |
 Strasbourg | 66% | 6 (2) | 0.99 | 38 |
SC Freiburg's Last Match – SC Freiburg vs Celta Vigo
SC Freiburg will be eager to build on their previous performance after securing a 3-0 UEFA Europa League victory over Celta Vigo on April 9. In that match, SC Freiburg controlled 52% of possession and managed 10 shots on goal, with 7 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 SC Freiburg | 52% | 10 (7) | 1.56 | 62 |
 Celta Vigo | 48% | 2 (0) | 0.58 | 37 |
Mainz vs SC Freiburg Stats
Key Stats
| Mainz | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.81 | Attacking Strength | 0.74 |
| 0.6 | Defence Strength | 1.27 |
| 1.9 | Points Per Game | 1.3 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 4/10 | DRAW | 1/10 |
| 4/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 5/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 4/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 7/10 |
| 1.4 | Average Scored | 1.7 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Mainz are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, while SC Freiburg average 1.7 scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
Mainz 14-10
SC Freiburg 17-16
What are the odds for this match?
Mainz to win: @2.3
Draw: @3.1
SC Freiburg to win: @3.4
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.875
Lineups
Mainz (3-3-2-2) : Daniel Batz, Danny da Costa, Stefan Posch, Dominik Kohr, Nikolas Veratschnig, Kaishu Sano, Philipp Mwene, Paul Nebel, Sota Kawasaki, Sheraldo Becker, Phillip Tietz
SC Freiburg (4-2-3-1) : Noah Atubolu, Lukas Kubler, Matthias Ginter, Bruno Ogbus, Christian Gunter, Maximilian Eggestein, Johan Manzambi, Cyriaque Irie, Lucas Holer, Derry Lionel Scherhant, Igor Matanovic