Our Southampton vs Derby Prediction: 2-1
Southampton vs Derby in the England Championship is scheduled for an 14:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday April 11, 2026. We expect a 2-1 home win, but with both teams proving their offensive capabilities, BTTS is a solid alternative bet.
This Southampton vs Derby prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Southampton's Last Match – Wrexham vs Southampton
Determined to maintain their recent success, Southampton must win following their 5-1 England Championship victory against Wrexham on April 7. In that match, Southampton saw 46% of the ball and created 13 goal attempts, with 9 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wrexham | 54% | 6 (1) | 1.08 | 38 |
 Southampton | 46% | 13 (9) | 2.62 | 33 |
Derby's Last Match – Derby vs Stoke
Derby must win to build on their momentum after securing a hard-fought 2-0 England Championship victory over Stoke in their last outing. In that match, Derby controlled 52% of possession and managed 12 shots on goal, with 3 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derby | 52% | 12 (3) | 2.57 | 70 |
 Stoke | 48% | 7 (0) | 0.3 | 45 |
Southampton vs Derby Stats
Key Stats
| Southampton | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.13 | Attacking Strength | 1.29 |
| 0.51 | Defence Strength | 0.99 |
| 2.6 | Points Per Game | 1.8 |
| 8/10 | WIN | 6/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 0/10 |
| 4/10 | Clean Sheets | 4/10 |
| 6/10 | BTTS | 4/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 4/10 |
| 2.3 | Average Scored | 1.5 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Southampton are averaging 2.3 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, while Derby average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
Southampton 23-6
Derby 15-12
What are the odds for this match?
Southampton to win: @1.75
Draw: @3.8
Derby to win: @4.2
Lineups
Southampton (4-2-3-1) : Daniel Peretz, James Bree, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jack Stephens, Ryan Manning, Flynn Downes, Caspar Jander, Tom Fellows, Finn Azaz, Leo Scienza, Ross Stewart
Derby (4-2-3-1) : Richard O'Donnell, Joe Ward, Dion Sanderson, Matt Clarke, Max Johnston, Lewis Travis, David Ozoh, Jaydon Banel, Sammie Szmodics, Bobby Clark, Carlton Morris