Our Derby vs Southampton Prediction: 1-1
Derby vs Southampton in the England Championship is scheduled for an 14:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday October 4, 2025. A 1-1 draw is our predicted outcome, with both teams expected to score, making BTTS a solid betting option.
This Derby vs Southampton prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Derby's Last Match – Derby vs Charlton
Derby will be determined to find a winning touch after a 1-1 England Championship draw against Charlton on September 30. In that match, Derby recorded 58% possession, attempting 8 shots on goal, with 3 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derby | 58% | 8 (3) | 1.83 | 58 |
 Charlton | 42% | 6 (3) | 0.58 | 35 |
Southampton's Last Match – Sheff Utd vs Southampton
Southampton will want to continue their winning form after a 2-1 England Championship victory over Sheff Utd, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Southampton controlled 52% of possession and managed 8 shots on goal, with 4 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sheff Utd | 48% | 6 (4) | 0.84 | 48 |
 Southampton | 52% | 8 (4) | 1.6 | 30 |
Derby vs Southampton Stats
Key Stats
| Derby | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Attacking Strength | 0.9 |
| 0.9 | Defence Strength | 1.13 |
| 0.8 | Points Per Game | 1.3 |
| 1/10 | WIN | 3/10 |
| 5/10 | DRAW | 4/10 |
| 1/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 8/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 4/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.2 | Average Scored | 1.3 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Derby are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match, while Southampton average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
Derby 12-17
Southampton 13-12
What are the odds for this match?
Derby to win: @3.5
Draw: @3.3
Southampton to win: @2.1
Over 2.5 Goals: @2.05
Lineups
Derby (4-2-3-1) : Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, Max Johnston, Dion Sanderson, Matt Clarke, Craig Forsyth, Andreas Weimann, Lewis Travis, Patrick Agyemang, Bobby Clark, David Ozoh, Carlton Morris
Southampton (4-2-3-1) : Alex McCarthy, Ronnie Edwards, Nathan Wood, Joshua Quarshie, Ryan Manning, Caspar Jander, Shea Charles, Ryan Fraser, Leo Scienza, Adam Armstrong, Ross Stewart
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