Our Southampton vs Stoke Prediction: 3-1
Southampton vs Stoke in the England Championship is scheduled for an 14:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday August 23, 2025. A 3-1 win for the home side is our expected outcome, though over 2.5 goals could be a valuable alternative given both teams' scoring form.
This Southampton vs Stoke prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Southampton's Last Match – Ipswich vs Southampton
Southampton will be hoping to return to winning ways after a 1-1 England Championship draw with Ipswich on August 17. In that match, Southampton controlled 48% of possession and managed 7 shots on goal, with 3 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ipswich | 52% | 10 (1) | 1.54 | 46 |
 Southampton | 48% | 7 (3) | 0.84 | 39 |
Stoke's Last Match – Sheff Wed vs Stoke
Stoke will want to continue their winning form after a 3-0 England Championship victory over Sheff Wed, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Stoke had 46% possession and 10 attempts at goal, with 5 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sheff Wed | 54% | 10 (5) | 1.3 | 49 |
 Stoke | 46% | 10 (5) | 1.8 | 37 |
Southampton vs Stoke Stats
Key Stats
| Southampton | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | Attacking Strength | 1.02 |
| 1.21 | Defence Strength | 1.32 |
| 1.5 | Points Per Game | 1.6 |
| 4/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 4/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 5/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 4/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 4/10 |
| 1.2 | Average Scored | 1.1 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Southampton are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, while Stoke average 1.1 scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
Southampton 12-12
Stoke 11-8
What are the odds for this match?
Southampton to win: @1.7
Draw: @3.8
Stoke to win: @4.75
Over 2.5 Goals: @2.025