Our Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Prediction: 1-1
Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 23:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday February 28, 2026. Our forecast favors a 1-1 draw, with both sides expected to find the net, making BTTS a highly probable scenario.
This forecast is grounded in a thorough analysis of recent form, team statistics and historical matchups — all explored in detail below to support your betting decisions.
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Recent Form Insights
Toluca's Last Match – Necaxa vs Toluca
Toluca will want to continue their winning form after a 3-0 Mexico Liga MX victory over Necaxa, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Toluca controlled 55% of possession and managed 12 shots on goal, with 6 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Necaxa | 45% | 11 (6) | 0.47 | 41 |
 Toluca | 55% | 12 (6) | 2.11 | 41 |
Chivas Guadalajara's Last Match – Cruz Azul vs Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara will be eager to respond after suffering a 1-2 Mexico Liga MX defeat at the hands of Cruz Azul on February 22. In that match, Chivas Guadalajara had 61% possession and 11 attempts at goal, with 3 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cruz Azul | 39% | 7 (3) | 0.66 | 28 |
 Chivas Guadalajara | 61% | 11 (3) | 1.18 | 43 |
Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Stats
Key Stats
| Toluca | Chivas Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Attacking Strength | 1.31 |
| 0.66 | Defence Strength | 0.67 |
| 2.1 | Points Per Game | 2.2 |
| 6/10 | WIN | 7/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 1/10 |
| 5/10 | Clean Sheets | 5/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 4/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.4 | Average Scored | 1.8 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Toluca are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, while Chivas Guadalajara average 1.8 scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
Toluca 14-6
Chivas Guadalajara 18-9
What are the odds for this match?
Toluca to win: @2
Draw: @3.4
Chivas Guadalajara to win: @3.8
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.825
Lineups
Toluca (4-3-3) : Luis Garcia, Diego Zaragoza, Federico Pereira, Bruno Mendez, Jesus Gallardo, Jorge Diaz, Franco Romero, Santiago Simon, Ricardo Angulo, Paulinho, Marcel Ruiz
Chivas Guadalajara (3-4-2-1) : Raul Rangel, Daniel Aguirre, Diego Campillo Del Campo, Jose Castillo, Richard Ledezma, Luis Romo, Ruben Gonzalez, Bryan Gonzalez, Roberto Alvarado, Efrain Alvarez, Armando Gonzalez
Cruz Azul 
Toluca 
Chivas Guadalajara 
Pachuca 
Unam Pumas 
Tigres UANL 
Atlas 
Club America 
Monterrey 
Puebla 
Atletico San Luis 
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Leon 
Mazatlan FC 
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Necaxa 
Queretaro 
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