Our Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction: 0-1
Necaxa vs Toluca in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 01:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday February 22, 2026. With defenses expected to dominate, Toluca could snatch a 0-1 win over Necaxa by making the most of their chances.
This Necaxa vs Toluca prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
If you're looking for more top picks, check out our must-win fixtures for today to see which teams have the highest chance of securing victory!
Recent Form Insights
Necaxa's Last Match – Juarez FC vs Necaxa
Necaxa will seek to keep their streak alive after a 2-1 Mexico Liga MX victory over Juarez FC on February 15. In that match, Necaxa recorded 50% possession, firing 3 shots at goal, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Juarez FC | 50% | 1 (6) | 1.3 | 32 |
 Necaxa | 50% | 3 (4) | 0.55 | 30 |
Toluca's Last Match – Toluca vs Tijuana
Toluca will want to continue their winning form after a 1-0 Mexico Liga MX victory over Tijuana, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Toluca recorded 58% possession, attempting 8 shots on goal, with 4 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toluca | 58% | 8 (4) | 1.82 | 56 |
 Tijuana | 42% | 4 (3) | 0.28 | 28 |
Necaxa vs Toluca Stats
Key Stats
| Necaxa | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.73 | Attacking Strength | 0.83 |
| 0.83 | Defence Strength | 0.3 |
| 1.7 | Points Per Game | 1.8 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 0/10 | Clean Sheets | 4/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 4/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 3/10 |
| 1.9 | Average Scored | 1.1 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Necaxa are averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Toluca average 1.1 scored and 0.7 conceded per game.
Necaxa 19-14
Toluca 11-7
What are the odds for this match?
Necaxa to win: @4.75
Draw: @3.9
Toluca to win: @1.7
Lineups
Necaxa (3-4-2-1) : Ezequiel Unsain, Raul Alejandro Martinez Ruiz, Alexis Pena, Agustin Oliveros, Ricardo Monreal, Danny Leyva, Lorenzo Faravelli, Cristian Calderon, Israel Tello, Agustin Almendra, Julian Carranza
Toluca (5-3-2) : Luis Garcia, Santiago Simon, Diego Zaragoza, Federico Pereira, Everardo Lopez del Villar, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruiz, Pavel Perez, Ricardo Angulo, Paulinho