Our Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction: 0-1
Necaxa vs Toluca in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 01:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday February 22, 2026. With defenses expected to dominate, Toluca could snatch a 0-1 win over Necaxa by making the most of their chances.
This Necaxa vs Toluca prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
If you're looking for more top picks, check out our must-win fixtures for today to see which teams have the highest chance of securing victory!
Recent Form Insights
Necaxa's Last Match – Juarez FC vs Necaxa
Necaxa will seek to keep their streak alive after a 2-1 Mexico Liga MX victory over Juarez FC on February 15. In that match, Necaxa recorded 50% possession, firing 3 shots at goal, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Juarez FC | 50% | 1 (6) | 1.3 | 32 |
 Necaxa | 50% | 3 (4) | 0.55 | 30 |
Toluca's Last Match – Toluca vs Tijuana
Toluca will want to continue their winning form after a 1-0 Mexico Liga MX victory over Tijuana, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Toluca recorded 58% possession, attempting 8 shots on goal, with 4 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toluca | 58% | 8 (4) | 1.82 | 56 |
 Tijuana | 42% | 4 (3) | 0.28 | 28 |
Necaxa vs Toluca Stats
Key Stats
| Necaxa | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.73 | Attacking Strength | 0.83 |
| 0.83 | Defence Strength | 0.3 |
| 1.7 | Points Per Game | 1.8 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 0/10 | Clean Sheets | 4/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 4/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 3/10 |
| 1.9 | Average Scored | 1.1 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Necaxa are averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Toluca average 1.1 scored and 0.7 conceded per game.
Necaxa 19-14
Toluca 11-7
What are the odds for this match?
Necaxa to win: @4.75
Draw: @3.9
Toluca to win: @1.7
Lineups
Necaxa (3-4-2-1) : Ezequiel Unsain, Raul Alejandro Martinez Ruiz, Alexis Pena, Agustin Oliveros, Ricardo Monreal, Danny Leyva, Lorenzo Faravelli, Cristian Calderon, Israel Tello, Agustin Almendra, Julian Carranza
Toluca (5-3-2) : Luis Garcia, Santiago Simon, Diego Zaragoza, Federico Pereira, Everardo Lopez del Villar, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruiz, Pavel Perez, Ricardo Angulo, Paulinho
Cruz Azul 
Toluca 
Chivas Guadalajara 
Pachuca 
Unam Pumas 
Tigres UANL 
Atlas 
Club America 
Monterrey 
Puebla 
Atletico San Luis 
Juarez FC 
Leon 
Mazatlan FC 
Tijuana 
Necaxa 
Queretaro 
Santos Laguna