Our Leon vs Toluca Prediction: 1-2
Leon vs Toluca in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 01:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday October 5, 2025. We predict a 1-2 away victory, but with both teams finding the net regularly, BTTS is also a strong betting option.
This Leon vs Toluca prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Leon's Last Match – Juarez FC vs Leon
Leon will be eager to respond after suffering a 0-2 Mexico Liga MX defeat at the hands of Juarez FC on September 27. In that match, Leon saw 44% of the ball and created 5 goal attempts, with 1 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Juarez FC | 56% | 15 (4) | 2.27 | 49 |
 Leon | 44% | 5 (1) | 0.26 | 36 |
Toluca's Last Match – LA Galaxy vs Toluca
Toluca will aim to maintain their momentum following a 3-2 Campeones Cup triumph against LA Galaxy on October 2. In that match, Toluca had 56% possession and 10 attempts at goal, with 5 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 LA Galaxy | 44% | 8 (3) | 1.4 | 37 |
 Toluca | 56% | 10 (5) | 1.28 | 7 |
Leon vs Toluca Stats
Key Stats
| Leon | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.74 | Attacking Strength | 1.5 |
| 1.1 | Defence Strength | 0.62 |
| 0.9 | Points Per Game | 2.3 |
| 2/10 | WIN | 7/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 3/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 4/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 0.8 | Average Scored | 2.4 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Leon are averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match, while Toluca average 2.4 scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
Leon 8-16
Toluca 24-9
What are the odds for this match?
Leon to win: @4
Draw: @4
Toluca to win: @1.8
Lineups
Leon (4-2-3-1) : Oscar Jimenez, Valentin Gauthier, Oscar Villa, Paul Bellon Saracho, Rodrigo Echeverria, Fernando Beltran, Jordi Cortizo, David Ramirez, James Rodriguez, Alfonso Alvarado, Rogelio Funes Mori
Toluca (4-2-3-1) : Luis Garcia, Santiago Simon, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Helinho, Ricardo Angulo, Nicolas Federico Castro, Alexis Vega, Paulinho