Our Toluca vs Tijuana Prediction: 3-1
Toluca vs Tijuana in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 03:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday February 14, 2026. A 3-1 win for the home side is our main prediction, though over 2.5 goals looks like a valuable bet given both teams’ attacking tendencies.
This forecast is grounded in a thorough analysis of recent form, team statistics and historical matchups — all explored in detail below to support your betting decisions.
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Recent Form Insights
Toluca's Last Match – Toluca vs Cruz Azul
Toluca will be determined to find a winning touch after a 1-1 Mexico Liga MX draw against Cruz Azul on February 7. In that match, Toluca had 56% possession and 10 attempts at goal, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toluca | 56% | 10 (6) | 2.2 | 38 |
 Cruz Azul | 44% | 6 (3) | 0.94 | 37 |
Tijuana's Last Match – Tijuana vs Puebla
Tijuana will be hoping to return to winning ways after a 0-0 Mexico Liga MX draw with Puebla on February 7. In that match, Tijuana controlled 57% of possession and managed 11 shots on goal, with 3 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tijuana | 57% | 11 (3) | 0.44 | 55 |
 Puebla | 43% | 13 (4) | 0.95 | 33 |
Toluca vs Tijuana Stats
Key Stats
| Toluca | Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | Attacking Strength | 1.07 |
| 0.82 | Defence Strength | 1.33 |
| 1.6 | Points Per Game | 1.6 |
| 4/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 4/10 | DRAW | 4/10 |
| 4/10 | Clean Sheets | 4/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 3/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1 | Average Scored | 1.4 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Toluca are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match, while Tijuana average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Toluca 10-7
Tijuana 14-14
What are the odds for this match?
Toluca to win: @1.363
Draw: @4.5
Tijuana to win: @9
Lineups
Toluca (5-3-2) : Hugo Alfonso Gonzalez Duran, Santiago Simon, Federico Pereira, Bruno Mendez, Pavel Perez, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruiz, Jorge Diaz, Ricardo Angulo, Paulinho
Tijuana (4-1-4-1) : Jose Rodriguez, Rafael Fernandez, Jackson Porozo, Unai Bilbao, Pablo Nicolas Ortiz Orozco, Ivan Oswaldo Tona Olmeda, Ramiro Arciga, Ignacio Rivero, Kevin Castaneda, Adonis Preciado, Mourad El Ghezouani
Cruz Azul 
Toluca 
Chivas Guadalajara 
Pachuca 
Unam Pumas 
Tigres UANL 
Atlas 
Club America 
Monterrey 
Puebla 
Atletico San Luis 
Juarez FC 
Leon 
Mazatlan FC 
Tijuana 
Necaxa 
Queretaro 
Santos Laguna