Our Toluca vs Mazatlan FC Prediction: 3-1
Toluca vs Mazatlan FC in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 01:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday September 28, 2025. A 3-1 result in favor of the hosts is our top pick, yet with both sides creating chances, over 2.5 goals remains an appealing option.
This forecast is grounded in a thorough analysis of recent form, team statistics and historical matchups — all explored in detail below to support your betting decisions.
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Recent Form Insights
Toluca's Last Match – Toluca vs Monterrey
Determined to maintain their recent success, Toluca must win following their 6-2 Mexico Liga MX victory against Monterrey on September 25. In that match, Toluca controlled 47% of possession and managed 11 shots on goal, with 13 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toluca | 47% | 11 (13) | 3.38 | 0 |
 Monterrey | 53% | 8 (7) | 2.55 | 0 |
Mazatlan FC's Last Match – Leon vs Mazatlan FC
Mazatlan FC will seek to go one better this time following a 2-2 Mexico Liga MX share of the spoils with Leon on September 24. In that match, Mazatlan FC recorded 42% possession, firing 12 shots at goal, with 8 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leon | 58% | 14 (6) | 4.11 | 35 |
 Mazatlan FC | 42% | 12 (8) | 1.79 | 53 |
Toluca vs Mazatlan FC Stats
Key Stats
| Toluca | Mazatlan FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | Attacking Strength | 0.56 |
| 1.03 | Defence Strength | 1.18 |
| 2.3 | Points Per Game | 0.8 |
| 7/10 | WIN | 1/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 5/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 6/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/10 |
| 2.2 | Average Scored | 1.3 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Toluca are averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, while Mazatlan FC average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
Toluca 22-8
Mazatlan FC 13-18
What are the odds for this match?
Toluca to win: @1.27
Draw: @6.5
Mazatlan FC to win: @9
Lineups
Toluca (4-4-2) : Hugo Alfonso Gonzalez Duran, Santiago Simon, Mauricio Isais, Bruno Mendez, Antonio Briseno, Fernando Arce, Hector Herrera, Ricardo Angulo, Nicolas Federico Castro, Alexis Vega, Robert Morales
Mazatlan FC (4-4-1-1) : Ricardo Gutierrez, Bryan Colula, Facundo Almada, Lucas Merolla, Mauro Zaleta, Edgar Barcenas, Jose Jaoquin Esquivel, Jordan Sierra, Ivan Gonzalez, Nicolas Benedetti, Anderson Duarte
Toluca 
Club America 
Monterrey 
Cruz Azul 
Tigres UANL 
Tijuana 
Pachuca 
Juarez FC 
Chivas Guadalajara 
Unam Pumas 
Atlas 
Leon 
Mazatlan FC 
Queretaro 
Atletico San Luis 
Santos Laguna 
Necaxa 
Puebla