Our Toluca vs Mazatlan FC Prediction: 3-1
Toluca vs Mazatlan FC in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 01:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday September 28, 2025. A 3-1 result in favor of the hosts is our top pick, yet with both sides creating chances, over 2.5 goals remains an appealing option.
This forecast is grounded in a thorough analysis of recent form, team statistics and historical matchups — all explored in detail below to support your betting decisions.
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Recent Form Insights
Toluca's Last Match – Toluca vs Monterrey
Determined to maintain their recent success, Toluca must win following their 6-2 Mexico Liga MX victory against Monterrey on September 25. In that match, Toluca controlled 47% of possession and managed 11 shots on goal, with 13 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toluca | 47% | 11 (13) | 3.38 | 0 |
 Monterrey | 53% | 8 (7) | 2.55 | 0 |
Mazatlan FC's Last Match – Leon vs Mazatlan FC
Mazatlan FC will seek to go one better this time following a 2-2 Mexico Liga MX share of the spoils with Leon on September 24. In that match, Mazatlan FC recorded 42% possession, firing 12 shots at goal, with 8 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leon | 58% | 14 (6) | 4.11 | 35 |
 Mazatlan FC | 42% | 12 (8) | 1.79 | 53 |
Toluca vs Mazatlan FC Stats
Key Stats
| Toluca | Mazatlan FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | Attacking Strength | 0.56 |
| 1.03 | Defence Strength | 1.18 |
| 2.3 | Points Per Game | 0.8 |
| 7/10 | WIN | 1/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 5/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 6/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/10 |
| 2.2 | Average Scored | 1.3 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Toluca are averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, while Mazatlan FC average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
Toluca 22-8
Mazatlan FC 13-18
What are the odds for this match?
Toluca to win: @1.27
Draw: @6.5
Mazatlan FC to win: @9
Lineups
Toluca (4-4-2) : Hugo Alfonso Gonzalez Duran, Santiago Simon, Mauricio Isais, Bruno Mendez, Antonio Briseno, Fernando Arce, Hector Herrera, Ricardo Angulo, Nicolas Federico Castro, Alexis Vega, Robert Morales
Mazatlan FC (4-4-1-1) : Ricardo Gutierrez, Bryan Colula, Facundo Almada, Lucas Merolla, Mauro Zaleta, Edgar Barcenas, Jose Jaoquin Esquivel, Jordan Sierra, Ivan Gonzalez, Nicolas Benedetti, Anderson Duarte
Chivas Guadalajara 
Juarez FC 
Atlas 
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Atletico San Luis 
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Leon 
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Santos Laguna 
Toluca 
Unam Pumas 
Queretaro 
Tigres UANL 
Mazatlan FC 
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