Our Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: 3-1
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix in the Australia A-League is scheduled for an 05:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday April 5, 2026. We predict a 3-1 home victory, but with both teams posing an attacking threat, over 2.5 goals is another solid betting option.
This Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Melbourne Victory's Last Match – Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne Victory will aim to maintain their momentum following a 4-1 Australia A-League triumph against Central Coast Mariners on March 21. In that match, Melbourne Victory had 57% possession and 18 attempts at goal, with 12 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Melbourne Victory | 57% | 18 (12) | 3.44 | 78 |
 Central Coast Mariners | 43% | 7 (5) | 1.11 | 25 |
Wellington Phoenix's Last Match – Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
Determined to maintain their recent success, Wellington Phoenix must win following their 2-1 Australia A-League victory against Brisbane Roar on March 21. In that match, Wellington Phoenix controlled 42% of possession and managed 7 shots on goal, with 5 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brisbane Roar | 58% | 7 (6) | 0.67 | 59 |
 Wellington Phoenix | 42% | 7 (5) | 2.23 | 26 |
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Stats
Key Stats
| Melbourne Victory | Wellington Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | Attacking Strength | 1.05 |
| 0.72 | Defence Strength | 1.21 |
| 1.8 | Points Per Game | 1.2 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 3/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 1/10 | Clean Sheets | 2/10 |
| 8/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 7/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 2.3 | Average Scored | 1.4 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Melbourne Victory are averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, while Wellington Phoenix average 1.4 scored and 1.9 conceded per game.
Melbourne Victory 23-12
Wellington Phoenix 14-19
What are the odds for this match?
Melbourne Victory to win: @1.533
Draw: @4.333
Wellington Phoenix to win: @5.25
Lineups
Melbourne Victory (4-2-3-1) : Jack Warshawsky, Joshua James Rawlins, Sebastian Esposito, Roderick Miranda, Francois Mamur, Denis Genreau, Jordi Valadon, Keegan Jelacic, Juan Mata, Nishan Velupillay, Nikos Vergos
Wellington Phoenix (4-4-2) : Joshua Oluwayemi, Matt Sheridan, Isaac Hughes, Bill Tuiloma, Dan Edwards, Paulo Retre, Alex Rufer, Kazuki Nagasawa, Ramy Najjarine, Eze Ifeanyi, Corban Piper
Newcastle Jets 
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Melbourne Victory 
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Wellington Phoenix 
Central Coast Mariners 
Brisbane Roar 
Perth Glory 
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