Our Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction: 2-1
Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany Bundesliga I is scheduled for an 19:30 GMT kick-off on Wednesday March 4, 2026. A 2-1 win for the home side is our expected outcome, though BTTS looks promising given both teams’ recent scoring records.
This Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Hamburg's Last Match – Hamburg vs RB Leipzig
Hamburg must win as they aim to bounce back from a disappointing 1-2 Germany Bundesliga I defeat against RB Leipzig on March 1. In that match, Hamburg saw 42% of the ball and created 7 goal attempts, with 3 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hamburg | 42% | 7 (3) | 0.54 | 30 |
 RB Leipzig | 58% | 15 (5) | 2.7 | 54 |
Bayer Leverkusen's Last Match – Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen will look to build on their last result following a 1-1 Germany Bundesliga I stalemate against Mainz on February 28. In that match, Bayer Leverkusen controlled 66% of possession and managed 3 shots on goal, with 5 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bayer Leverkusen | 66% | 3 (5) | 1.07 | 73 |
 Mainz | 34% | 4 (4) | 0.73 | 44 |
Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Stats
Key Stats
| Hamburg | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | Attacking Strength | 1.09 |
| 0.81 | Defence Strength | 0.89 |
| 1.1 | Points Per Game | 2.1 |
| 2/10 | WIN | 6/10 |
| 5/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 6/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 3/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 4/10 |
| 1.2 | Average Scored | 1.8 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Hamburg are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Bayer Leverkusen average 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded per game.
Hamburg 12-14
Bayer Leverkusen 18-4
What are the odds for this match?
Hamburg to win: @3.5
Draw: @3.5
Bayer Leverkusen to win: @2.05
Lineups
Hamburg (3-4-3) : Daniel Fernandes, Warmed Omari, Luka Vuskovic, Daniel Elfadli, Bakery Jatta, Fabio Vieira, Nicolai Remberg, Giorgi Gocholeishvili, Rayan Philippe, Damion Downs, Ransford Konigsdorffer
Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1) : Janis Blaswich, Jarell Quansah, Robert Andrich, Edmond Tapsoba, Montrell Culbreath, Aleix Garcia, Exequiel Palacios, Alex Grimaldo, Ibrahim Maza, Martin Terrier, Christian Michel Kofane