Our Derby vs Leeds Prediction: 2-2
Derby vs Leeds in the England FA Cup is scheduled for an 12:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday January 11, 2026. A 2-2 draw is our predicted outcome, with both teams expected to score, making BTTS a solid betting option.
This Derby vs Leeds prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Derby's Last Match – Derby vs Wrexham
Derby will be eager to respond after suffering a 1-2 England Championship defeat at the hands of Wrexham on January 4.
Leeds's Last Match – Newcastle vs Leeds
Leeds will aim to put their last result behind them following a 3-4 England Premier League loss to Newcastle on January 7. In that match, Leeds saw 38% of the ball and created 11 goal attempts, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 62% | 12 (8) | 2.71 | 68 |
 Leeds | 38% | 11 (6) | 2.26 | 47 |
Derby vs Leeds Stats
Key Stats
| Derby | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | Attacking Strength | 0.89 |
| 1.15 | Defence Strength | 1.06 |
| 1.2 | Points Per Game | 1.1 |
| 3/10 | WIN | 2/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 5/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 8/10 | BTTS | 9/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.3 | Average Scored | 1.9 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Derby are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, while Leeds average 1.9 scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
Derby 13-13
Leeds 19-17
What are the odds for this match?
Derby to win: @4.5
Draw: @3.6
Leeds to win: @1.75
Over 2.5 Goals: @2.05