Our Mainz vs Hamburg Prediction: 1-0
Mainz vs Hamburg in the Germany Bundesliga I is scheduled for an 19:30 GMT kick-off on Friday February 20, 2026. A hard-fought battle awaits, but Mainz is likely to edge past Hamburg with a narrow 1-0 scoreline.
This Mainz vs Hamburg prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Mainz's Last Match – Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz
Mainz will be looking to bounce back after a 0-4 Germany Bundesliga I defeat against Borussia Dortmund on February 13. In that match, Mainz recorded 46% possession, firing 4 shots at goal, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Borussia Dortmund | 54% | 7 (8) | 1.86 | 60 |
 Mainz | 46% | 4 (4) | 1.42 | 30 |
Hamburg's Last Match – Hamburg vs Union Berlin
Hamburg will look to carry forward their winning form after a 3-2 Germany Bundesliga I success over Union Berlin on February 14. In that match, Hamburg saw 57% of the ball and created 9 goal attempts, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hamburg | 57% | 9 (4) | 1.82 | 44 |
 Union Berlin | 43% | 11 (5) | 2.11 | 38 |
Mainz vs Hamburg Stats
Key Stats
| Mainz | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.73 | Attacking Strength | 0.4 |
| 0.8 | Defence Strength | 1.09 |
| 1.8 | Points Per Game | 1.4 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 3/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 5/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 6/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 7/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/10 |
| 1.6 | Average Scored | 1.4 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Mainz are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, while Hamburg average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Mainz 16-13
Hamburg 14-14
What are the odds for this match?
Mainz to win: @2.05
Draw: @3.3
Hamburg to win: @3.8
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.85
Lineups
Mainz (3-3-2-2) : Daniel Batz, Stefan Posch, Kacper Potulski, Dominik Kohr, Danny da Costa, Kaishu Sano, Philipp Mwene, Nadiem Amiri, Lee Jae-sung, Silas Katompa Mvumpa, Phillip Tietz
Hamburg (3-4-3) : Daniel Fernandes, Nicolas Capaldo, Warmed Omari, Jordan Torunarigha, Bakery Jatta, Fabio Vieira, Nicolai Remberg, Miro Muheim, Ransford Konigsdorffer, Robert Glatzel, Philipas Otele