Our Hamburg vs Mainz Prediction: 1-2
Hamburg vs Mainz in the Germany Bundesliga I is scheduled for an 15:30 GMT kick-off on Sunday October 5, 2025. Our analysis suggests a 1-2 away win, but with both teams likely to get on the scoresheet, BTTS is also worth considering.
This Hamburg vs Mainz prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Hamburg's Last Match – Union Berlin vs Hamburg
Hamburg must win as they look to rediscover their winning form following a 0-0 Germany Bundesliga I draw against Union Berlin on September 28. In that match, Hamburg had 66% possession and 18 attempts at goal, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Union Berlin | 34% | 10 (2) | 1.37 | 47 |
 Hamburg | 66% | 18 (6) | 1.08 | 40 |
Mainz's Last Match – Omonia Nicosia vs Mainz
Mainz will look to carry forward their winning form after a 1-0 UEFA Conference League success over Omonia Nicosia on October 2. In that match, Mainz saw 56% of the ball and created 8 goal attempts, with 2 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Omonia Nicosia | 44% | 9 (3) | 0.23 | 18 |
 Mainz | 56% | 8 (2) | 1.53 | 61 |
Hamburg vs Mainz Stats
Key Stats
| Hamburg | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | Attacking Strength | 1.15 |
| 1.02 | Defence Strength | 0.85 |
| 0.8 | Points Per Game | 1.4 |
| 2/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 4/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 3/10 |
| 0.6 | Average Scored | 1.2 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Hamburg are averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match, while Mainz average 1.2 scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
Hamburg 6-20
Mainz 12-9
What are the odds for this match?
Hamburg to win: @2.875
Draw: @3.5
Mainz to win: @2.35
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.85
Lineups
Hamburg (3-4-3) : Daniel Fernandes, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Luka Vuskovic, Daniel Elfadli, Giorgi Gocholeishvili, Nicolas Capaldo, Nicolai Remberg, Miro Muheim, Rayan Philippe, Ransford Konigsdorffer, Jean-Luc Dompe
Mainz (3-4-2-1) : Lasse Riess, Danny da Costa, Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Dominik Kohr, Arnaud Nordin, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Philipp Mwene, Paul Nebel, Lee Jae-sung, Benedict Hollerbach