Our Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction: 1-1
Pachuca vs Toluca in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 23:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday March 22, 2026. A 1-1 result is our main prediction, but with both teams likely to score, BTTS is another strong betting choice.
This Pachuca vs Toluca prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Pachuca's Last Match – Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca
Pachuca will aim to turn their fortunes around after a 1-1 Mexico Liga MX draw with Atletico San Luis on March 14. In that match, Pachuca saw 56% of the ball and created 11 goal attempts, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atletico San Luis | 44% | 6 (2) | 1.24 | 22 |
 Pachuca | 56% | 11 (4) | 1 | 65 |
Toluca's Last Match – Toluca vs San Diego FC
Toluca must win to build on their momentum after securing a hard-fought 4-0 CONCACAF Champions Cup victory over San Diego FC in their last outing. In that match, Toluca controlled 57% of possession and managed 24 shots on goal, with 13 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toluca | 57% | 24 (13) | 3.16 | 40 |
 San Diego FC | 43% | 3 (0) | 0.46 | 18 |
Pachuca vs Toluca Stats
Key Stats
| Pachuca | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Attacking Strength | 0.74 |
| 0.74 | Defence Strength | 0.3 |
| 2.1 | Points Per Game | 1.9 |
| 6/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 4/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 5/10 |
| 6/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 4/10 |
| 1.4 | Average Scored | 1.6 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Pachuca are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match, while Toluca average 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
Pachuca 14-7
Toluca 20-8
What are the odds for this match?
Pachuca to win: @3.9
Draw: @3.6
Toluca to win: @1.85
Over 2.5 Goals: @2
Lineups
Pachuca (4-2-3-1) : Carlos Moreno, Brian Garcia, Eduardo Bauermann, Sergio Barreto, Carlos Sanchez, Victor Guzman, Christian Rivera, Robert Kenedy, Alexei Dominguez, Oussama Idrissi, Salomon Rondon
Toluca (4-4-2) : Hugo Alfonso Gonzalez Duran, Santiago Simon, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Helinho, Everardo Lopez del Villar, Franco Romero, Ricardo Angulo, Paulinho, Alexis Vega