Our Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction: 3-1
Toluca vs Pachuca in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 01:00 GMT kick-off on Monday October 27, 2025. A 3-1 result in favor of the hosts is our top pick, yet with both sides creating chances, over 2.5 goals remains an appealing option.
This forecast is grounded in a thorough analysis of recent form, team statistics and historical matchups — all explored in detail below to support your betting decisions.
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Recent Form Insights
Toluca's Last Match – Tijuana vs Toluca
Determined to get back to winning ways, Toluca must win after their 0-0 Mexico Liga MX draw against Tijuana on October 23. In that match, Toluca had 61% possession and 5 attempts at goal, with 2 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tijuana | 39% | 4 (0) | 0.3 | 30 |
 Toluca | 61% | 5 (2) | 0.34 | 48 |
Pachuca's Last Match – Pachuca vs Tigres UANL
Pachuca will hope to recover from their recent 1-2 Mexico Liga MX setback against Tigres UANL on October 23. In that match, Pachuca recorded 54% possession, attempting 12 shots on goal, with 5 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pachuca | 54% | 12 (5) | 1.21 | 50 |
 Tigres UANL | 46% | 10 (8) | 0.93 | 26 |
Toluca vs Pachuca Stats
Key Stats
| Toluca | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Attacking Strength | 1.16 |
| 0.85 | Defence Strength | 0.85 |
| 2.5 | Points Per Game | 0.9 |
| 8/10 | WIN | 2/10 |
| 1/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 6/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 8/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/10 |
| 2.9 | Average Scored | 1 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Toluca are averaging 2.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, while Pachuca average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded per game.
Toluca 29-10
Pachuca 10-15
What are the odds for this match?
Toluca to win: @1.6
Draw: @4.333
Pachuca to win: @5
Lineups
Toluca (4-2-3-1) : Luis Garcia, Santiago Simon, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Nicolas Federico Castro, Marcel Ruiz, Alexis Vega, Ricardo Angulo, Paulinho
Pachuca (4-2-3-1) : Carlos Moreno, Brian Garcia, Sergio Barreto, Daniel Aceves, Jorge Berlanga, Victor Guzman, William Carvalho, Enner Valencia, Alan Bautista, Luis Quinones, Gaston Togni