Our Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction: 2-3
Barcelona vs Real Madrid in the Spain Super Cup is scheduled for an 19:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday January 11, 2026. Our forecast points to a 2-3 away win, but considering both sides' recent goal-scoring trends, over 2.5 goals is also a smart choice.
This Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
→ View Today's Full-Time Score Predictions
Recent Form Insights
Barcelona's Last Match – Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao
Barcelona will hope to extend their good run following a 5-0 Spain Super Cup win against Athletic Bilbao on January 7. In that match, Barcelona saw 80% of the ball and created 10 goal attempts, with 7 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 80% | 10 (7) | 2.08 | 47 |
 Athletic Bilbao | 20% | 8 (3) | 1.76 | 33 |
Real Madrid's Last Match – Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid will want to continue their winning form after a 2-1 Spain Super Cup victory over Atletico Madrid, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Real Madrid had 46% possession and 7 attempts at goal, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atletico Madrid | 54% | 16 (6) | 2.26 | 88 |
 Real Madrid | 46% | 7 (4) | 1.13 | 35 |
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Stats
Key Stats
| Barcelona | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.37 | Attacking Strength | 1.56 |
| 1.05 | Defence Strength | 0.7 |
| 2.7 | Points Per Game | 2.2 |
| 9/10 | WIN | 7/10 |
| 0/10 | DRAW | 1/10 |
| 5/10 | Clean Sheets | 2/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 7/10 |
| 2.6 | Average Scored | 2.3 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Barcelona are averaging 2.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match, while Real Madrid average 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded per game.
Barcelona 26-9
Real Madrid 23-13
What are the odds for this match?
Barcelona to win: @1.95
Draw: @3.9
Real Madrid to win: @3.5