Our Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction: 2-1
Barcelona vs Real Madrid in the Spain La Liga is scheduled for an 15:15 GMT kick-off on Sunday May 11, 2025. Our forecast points to a 2-1 home win, but considering both teams’ recent scoring patterns, BTTS is a highly likely outcome.
This Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Barcelona's Last Match – Inter Milan vs Barcelona
Barcelona will hope to recover from their recent 3-4 UEFA Champions League setback against Inter Milan on May 6. In that match, Barcelona recorded 71% possession, attempting 20 shots on goal, with 10 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Inter Milan | 29% | 10 (7) | 2.27 | 34 |
 Barcelona | 71% | 20 (10) | 2.73 | 86 |
Real Madrid's Last Match – Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Real Madrid will hope to extend their good run following a 3-2 Spain La Liga win against Celta Vigo on May 4. In that match, Real Madrid recorded 54% possession, firing 14 shots at goal, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 54% | 14 (6) | 2.12 | 47 |
 Celta Vigo | 46% | 11 (7) | 1.96 | 50 |
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Stats
Key Stats
| Barcelona | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.87 | Attacking Strength | 1.42 |
| 0.67 | Defence Strength | 0.62 |
| 2 | Points Per Game | 1.6 |
| 6/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 1/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 7/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 7/10 |
| 2.3 | Average Scored | 1.7 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Barcelona are averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match, while Real Madrid average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
Barcelona 23-17
Real Madrid 17-18
What are the odds for this match?
Barcelona to win: @1.95
Draw: @4
Real Madrid to win: @3.4
Lineups
Barcelona (4-2-3-1) : Wojciech Szczesny, Eric Garcia, Pau Cubarsi, Inigo Martinez, Gerard Martin, Frenkie De Jong, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Raphinha, Ferran Torres
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1) : Thibaut Courtois, Lucas Vazquez, Aurelien Tchouameni, Raul Asencio, Francisco Garcia, Arda Guler, Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior