Our Toluca vs Santos Laguna Prediction: 3-1
Toluca vs Santos Laguna in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 03:10 GMT kick-off on Thursday January 15, 2026. A 3-1 win for the home side is our expected outcome, though over 2.5 goals could be a valuable alternative given both teams' scoring form.
This forecast is grounded in a thorough analysis of recent form, team statistics and historical matchups — all explored in detail below to support your betting decisions.
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Recent Form Insights
Toluca's Last Match – Monterrey vs Toluca
Toluca will be eager to build on their previous performance after securing a 1-0 Mexico Liga MX victory over Monterrey on January 11. In that match, Toluca had 35% possession and 5 attempts at goal, with 2 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Monterrey | 65% | 12 (5) | 1.51 | 41 |
 Toluca | 35% | 5 (2) | 1.02 | 40 |
Santos Laguna's Last Match – Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
Santos Laguna will look to get back on track following a 1-3 Mexico Liga MX loss against Necaxa on January 11. In that match, Santos Laguna recorded 55% possession, firing 8 shots at goal, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Santos Laguna | 55% | 8 (4) | 0.63 | 53 |
 Necaxa | 45% | 9 (6) | 1.77 | 25 |
Toluca vs Santos Laguna Stats
Key Stats
| Toluca | Santos Laguna | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | Attacking Strength | 0.73 |
| 0.81 | Defence Strength | 1.3 |
| 1.8 | Points Per Game | 1.3 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 1/10 |
| 4/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 4/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.2 | Average Scored | 1.2 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Toluca are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, while Santos Laguna average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
Toluca 12-8
Santos Laguna 12-18
What are the odds for this match?
Toluca to win: @1.2
Draw: @7
Santos Laguna to win: @11
Lineups
Toluca (4-2-3-1) : Luis Garcia, Francisco Pumpido, Antonio Briseno, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero, Helinho, Ricardo Angulo, Nicolas Federico Castro, Paulinho
Santos Laguna (4-2-3-1) : Carlos Acevedo, Kevin Picon, Haret Ortega, Javier Guemez, Bruno Amione, Ramiro Sordo, Efrain Orona, Ezequiel Bullaude, Fran Villalba, Carlos Gruezo, Lucas Di Yorio