Our Toluca vs Puebla Prediction: 3-1
Toluca vs Puebla in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 03:00 GMT kick-off on Sunday September 14, 2025. We predict a 3-1 home victory, but with both teams posing an attacking threat, over 2.5 goals is another solid betting option.
This forecast is grounded in a thorough analysis of recent form, team statistics and historical matchups — all explored in detail below to support your betting decisions.
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Recent Form Insights
Toluca's Last Match – Atletico San Luis vs Toluca
Toluca will seek to keep their streak alive after a 3-1 Mexico Liga MX victory over Atletico San Luis on August 30. In that match, Toluca recorded 48% possession, attempting 7 shots on goal, with 6 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atletico San Luis | 52% | 4 (3) | 1.04 | 30 |
 Toluca | 48% | 7 (6) | 2.32 | 32 |
Puebla's Last Match – Puebla vs Monterrey
Puebla will be eager to respond after suffering a 2-4 Mexico Liga MX defeat at the hands of Monterrey on August 30. In that match, Puebla recorded 36% possession, firing 5 shots at goal, with 4 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Puebla | 36% | 5 (4) | 1.13 | 27 |
 Monterrey | 64% | 10 (8) | 2.64 | 45 |
Toluca vs Puebla Stats
Key Stats
| Toluca | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.61 | Attacking Strength | 0.48 |
| 1.11 | Defence Strength | 1.24 |
| 1.8 | Points Per Game | 1.1 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 3/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 4/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 4/10 |
| 6/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.8 | Average Scored | 1 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Toluca are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, while Puebla average 1.0 scored and 1.9 conceded per game.
Toluca 18-12
Puebla 10-19
What are the odds for this match?
Toluca to win: @1.333
Draw: @5.5
Puebla to win: @8
Lineups
Toluca (4-2-3-1) : Luis Garcia, Diego Zaragoza, Jesus Gallardo, Marcel Ruiz, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Ricardo Angulo, Franco Romero, Robert Morales, Alexis Vega, Nicolas Federico Castro
Puebla (4-4-2) : Julio Gonzalez, Jesus Rivas, Nicolas Diaz, Ariel Gamarra, Fernando Monarrez, Juan Manuel Fedorco, Alejandro Organista, Efrain Orona, Emiliano Gomez, Esteban Lozano, Eduardo Navarro